Straight-up NFL picks, Week 2: A Bills bounce-back and hey, what's going on Steelers? (2024)

This game shares the largest spread of Week 2 with the New York Jets’ trip to Dallas — but after what happened on Monday, I’m not declaring any game against the Jets easy, Zach Wilson or no. Instead, let’s dig into a Josh Allen bounce-back game against a team that allowed Russell Wilson to provide hope for the Broncos’ future in Week 1 (don’t worry, this will not last).

Allen got his lunch eaten by a robust Jets secondary that kept Stefon Diggs in man-to-man matchups (to uneven effect), forced him to pass elsewhere and blanketed those options with tight coverage. The Raiders can’t afford to do the same. They don’t have a Sauce Gardner who can at least kinda-sorta stifle him (Diggs only had 62 receiving yards in the game’s first 58 minutes). They have a secondary that allowed a 98.8 passer rating in coverage last season — worst in the NFL.

That sets the stage for a bounce-back, even if it comes with some hiccups and the kind of risk-reward ratio that makes Sean McDermott cringe. There’s a possibility Las Vegas makes this pick look stupid — but a much better one that the Bills get back on track.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 1-0 (1.000)

See, the Steelers are so untrustworthy the betting public is abandoning them at home against a franchise that hasn’t won a regular season game at Heinz Field (it will never be Acrisure, stop trying to make it happen) since 2003. I completely understand why; Pittsburgh just got boat-raced, at home, in Week 1.

That was against a San Francisco 49ers team that looks capable of breaking its Super Bowl drought. Week 2 brings the Browns, who won convincingly 24-3 in their opener against the Bengals. A defense that’s typically been more potential than production coalesced to badger Joe Burrow and now gets to do the same to a lesser quarterback in Kenny Pickett. Nick Chubb had 100-plus rushing yards that game and faces a Steeler defense that gave up 152 to Christian McCaffrey.

But the Browns aren’t in the circle of trust yet. Deshaun Watson had 32 dropbacks for 144 net passing yards agains the Bengals and now has to face a fearsome Pittsburgh pass rush without right tackle Jack Conklin. TJ Watt had three sacks, two of which were strip sacks, by crushing Niners’ fill-in RT Colton McKivitz last week. Not having Cameron Heyward hurts, but there’s enough defensive talent on the Steelers roster to keep Watson, acquired despite more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL itself described as “predatory behavior,” looking thoroughly average.

From there, Pittsburgh just needs Kenny Pickett to make a few throws in front of a hyperactive prime time home crowd. That’s not a bet I love, but there were some encouraging moments from his 2023 debut even if he defaulted to entirely too many short throws while getting blown out. Hey, if he can string together enough of those high percentage passes and sustain drives, he’ll extend Cleveland’s regular season streak of Pennsylvania futility another season.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 1-0 (1.000)

Backing the Dolphins last week made it a perfect 3-0 on my featured picks. Pulling that off again could come down to the Falcons grinding out a win over the league’s most efficient quarterback (through one game).

Green Bay-Atlanta is a fascinating matchup. One of the Packers’ glaring weaknesses through the tail end of the Aaron Rodgers era was their lack of run defense. There’s nothing more Falcons’ head coach Arthur Smith would like to do than smother you to death with handoffs; Desmond Ridder’s 18 pass attempts last week were the least in the NFL. Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt are each a year older and capable of patching those running lanes, but there’s a chance the Packers give up multiple eight-ish minute drives if they can’t take an early lead.

A veteran-heavy defense will put Jordan Love to the test as well. The Bears didn’t have anyone in their secondary as talented as A.J. Terrell and free agent addition Jessie Bates III is the kind of center fielder who can erase all the open wideouts Love was able to find on third-and-long. With Aaron Jones nursing a hamstring injury, Walker potentially dealing with a head injury and Christian Watson’s status up in the air, there’s enough here to believe the Falcons pull out an ugly, close win.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 1-0 (1.000)